Saturday, December 11, 2004

Pavano going to the Bronx...

...and I couldn't be happier. The talk around the Baseball Blogosphere is that Pavano is going to sign a 4 year - $42 million contract with the Yankees. Let's look at his stats real quick...

Year Ag Tm  Lg  W   L   G   GS  CG SHO  GF SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP   ERA *lgERA *ERA+

+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
1998 22 MON NL 6 9 24 23 0 0 0 0 134.7 130 70 63 18 43 83 8 1 580 4.21 4.11 98
1999 23 MON NL 6 8 19 18 1 1 0 0 104.0 117 66 65 8 35 70 4 1 457 5.62 4.70 84
2000 24 MON NL 8 4 15 15 0 0 0 0 97.0 89 40 33 8 34 64 8 1 408 3.06 4.64 151
2001 25 MON NL 1 6 8 8 0 0 0 0 42.7 59 33 30 7 16 36 2 0 199 6.33 4.62 73
2002 26 MON NL 3 8 15 14 0 0 0 0 74.3 98 55 52 14 31 51 7 2 350 6.30 4.16 66
FLA NL 3 2 22 8 0 0 2 0 61.7 76 33 26 5 14 41 3 1 269 3.79 3.99 105
TOT NL 6 10 37 22 0 0 2 0 136.0 174 88 78 19 45 92 10 3 619 5.16 4.08 79
2003 27 FLA NL 12 13 33 32 2 0 1 0 201.0 204 99 96 19 49 133 7 3 846 4.30 4.03 94
2004 28 FLA NL 18 8 31 31 2 2 0 0 222.3 212 80 74 16 49 139 11 2 909 3.00 4.10 137
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
7 Yr WL% .496 57 58 167 149 5 3 3 0 937.7 985 476 439 95 271 617 50 11 4018 4.21 4.23 100
+--------------+---+---+---+---+---+---+---+--+------+----+----+----+---+----+----+---+---+-----+-----+-----+----+
162 Game Avg 12 12 35 32 1 0 0 0 201.7 211 102 94 20 58 132 10 2 864 4.21 4.23 100
Career High 18 13 37 32 2 2 2 0 222.3 212 99 96 19 49 139 11 3 909 3.00 4.71 152

* indicates the value is park adjusted
Does this look a pitcher who's worth $10 million a year? Admittedly, he's a good pitcher who had a very good season last year. He's not an ace, however, and he isn't the answer to the Yankees pitching problems.

Currently the Yankees rotation looks like it will be Mussina, Vazquez, Pavano, Milton (maybe), and whoever they throw in the 5th spot. Mussina used to be an ace, but he experienced a significant decline last season as his ERA+ dropped from 129 to 98. He's also going to be 36 years old when spring training opens so the chances of him rebounding are pretty slim. Vazquez turned out to be a huge disappointment and looks like he'll be Jeff Weaver Redux. Pavano and Milton are both average pitchers.

So, if Milton signs at 3 years - $21 million the Yankees will have spent $42 million for a collection of #3 or #4 starters. When their biggest competitor, the Red Sox, have a rotation consisting of Pedro Martinez (it appears likely he'll re-sign), Schilling, Tim Wakefield, and David Wells these 4 Yankees just aren't going to cut it.

The Yankees will certainly contend with their lineup, but for this team the only thing that really matters is the playoffs. Unless something big happens, and currently there aren't any rumors out there, the Yanks won't have the arms to compete in October. Like I said, I couldn't be happier.

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